Nokia Bell Labs Digital Networks White Paper


This paper takes a fresh look at the debate over the relationship between digital technology and productivity. The argument of economic historian Robert J. Gordon is that digital technology will not lead to similar increases in productivity as we saw in the last century, based on his analysis of the five “Great Inventions” in the fields of electricity, urban sanitation, chemicals, the internal combustion engine and communications. In this paper, we argue that the key ingredient in these great inventions is the ability to diffuse their effects widely based on the creation of “great networks” in transportation, health, energy and communications. It is this “network effect” that underlies the burst in productivity observed. We then use this essential observation to propose that today’s digital technologies will augment and replace the current static network infrastructure with automated, intelligent Great Digital Innovation Networks (GDINs), which will combine to drive the fourth industrial revolution. By analyzing the effects of the previous great networks, we also develop a model that can be used to predict when this industrial revolution will result in a productivity burst in the US, China and India. Finally, we note a parallel between our framework and the innovation theory explanation of the well-publicized Kondratieff wave of economic cycles, which also predicts an innovation peak roughly in the 2030–2040 timeframe.