V.92: The last dial-up modem?

Ever since the first dial-up modems appeared in the 1960s, their obsolescence has been repeatedly predicted. However, contrary to such predictions, dial-up modems thrived in the 1980s and 1990s as a result of the slow rollout of residential digital services and the unprecedented growth of internet and remote access. Since the first 300 b/s dial-up modem standard (V.21), modem speeds have increased steadily. Most recently, International Telecommunications Union (ITU) Recommendation V.90 (1998) takes advantage of the direct digital-network connection of an internet service provider (ISP) remote-access server to achieve speeds of more than 50 kb/s downstream (from ISP to a user). However, for upstream transmission (from a user to ISP), V.90 employs the older V.34 modulation (1994), which typically delivers on the order of 30 kb/s. A new ITU modem standard called V.92 increases upstream rates to above 40 kb/s, again by taking advantage of pulse code modulation connections. In this paper, we present the transmission scheme that has been adopted for V.92. It involves a generalization of Tomlinson-Harashima precodling. We predict that V.92 will be the last dial-up modem standard. However, we have to wonder whether we might be falling into the same trap into which many others have fallen in the past. The future will be the judge!