What Can Past Technology Forecasts Tell Us About the Future?

With the arrival of the twenty-first century, it is a good time to review the forecasts of "One hundred technological innovations very likely in the last third of the twentieth century," published by Herman Kahn and Anthony Wiener in their 1967 book, the Year 2000, A framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years. In a ranting of Khan and Wiener's 100 forecasts by a panel of knowledgeable technologists and futurists, fewer than 50% were judged good and timely. More than 55-60% did not occur in the twentieth century. However, when the 100 forecasts are grouped into nine broad technological fields (Infrastructure and Transportation, Health and Humans, Materials, Defense, Computers and Communication, Aerospace, Biotechnology and Agriculture, Environment, and Lifestyle), there are wide variations in the judged accuracy of the forecasts. In particular, forecasts in the field of Computers and Communication stand out as about 80% correct, while all other fields were judged 50% or less correct. Why were Kahn and Wiener's forecasts in Computers and Communication apparently so much better than for other fields? Have the technological drivers of the information age such as Moore's Law made this field more predictable than others? What lessons can we learn for forecasting currently emerging technologies?